This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this fight goes. I think Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Aside from that, I believe we have a pretty safe win here using Roberts and that’s what I am searching for. I need the wins that are safer in cash and that I can worry about who is going to score the highest in GPPs. I believe we could eliminate him in the GPPs at his price because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win $25k. It helps us win in money games though and I would be amazed if he had a low scoring win here. I believe he’s excellent for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with that in my cash lineup.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is the GPP drama of the week and he’s the highest ITD chances on the card in -222. This is a set up struggle for him to get a knockout and I believe that is most likely going to happen in the first round. That should put Hardy over 100 points and I am considering that. Hardy will be among my top plays of this week, but he is GPP just for me. We can’t trust him enough for money games, so that’s the reason why I like Roberts longer in that format. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they win, and he is $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the top lineup and even with high ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he gets the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that is too good for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog drama of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change once they are released. We get Teixeira here for 400 less costly than Cutelaba and he’s preferred to get the win. In addition, I believe he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission above 90 points. That would give him a fantastic shot at being to the optimal lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this struggle in GPPs since I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is what I enjoy the most and we need to have»underdogs» within our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I think the obvious path to success for Glover is on the floor and that is precisely what I expect his game must be. I like him to get a entry win if he can land takedowns and he will be one of my highest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a strong fade as well… But I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and I have zero lineups such as her. Generally, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling being in her very best interest against Jandiroba and I think she uses her wrestling at defense to try to keep this fight on the toes. All the danger is on the floor in this matchup and Carla has the boxing of both. I believe she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to cut it 8.2k so I just don’t see the way she ends up on the $25k lineup this week if she does win, and that’s why she’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 69-44 to get +224.83un (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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