This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these ancient cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and revel in the rest of the afternoon once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we should have a large edge this week if we place in the job. Most casual players will not be doing research on those names they have never heard and will only be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I will personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card that Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I think I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a fight, I love to stack it into my money games and lock those factors. I believe this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I think we could observe multiple knockdowns as well that would help, but I believe we readily get over 100+ points together with these two guys. Let’s let everyone else make the errors and we can lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we just need to find another 3 wins we are confident in.
GPP drama of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a triumph. He has a very slick entry game and when this fight goes to the floor I presume he can pick up advance points fast and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he is winning the feet, he shoots for takedowns each fight. I believe if Manny can not get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we can observe a 1st round entry here which should easily get the 10x+ we’re looking for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped out more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the past couple of years but I believe he has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I really do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I believe you want some exposure to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my selections being correct and that I will hit the right combo. It’s hard to choose one favorite fade this week but I shall select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I believe he will use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that seems great on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and that he ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and I don’t see him getting a submission. But I think we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he is my fade of this week.
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